A shekarar 2023, saboda raguwar buƙata a yankuna daban-daban, kasuwar polyvinyl chloride (PVC) ta duniya har yanzu tana fuskantar rashin tabbas. A mafi yawan shekarun 2022, farashin PVC a Asiya da Amurka ya nuna raguwa sosai kuma ya faɗi ƙasa kafin shiga 2023. A shekarar 2023, a tsakanin yankuna daban-daban, bayan da China ta daidaita manufofinta na rigakafi da shawo kan annobar, kasuwa tana sa ran mayar da martani; Amurka na iya ƙara yawan riba domin yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kaya da kuma rage buƙatar PVC a cikin gida a Amurka. Asiya, ƙarƙashin jagorancin China, da Amurka sun faɗaɗa fitar da PVC a tsakanin ƙarancin buƙatun duniya. Dangane da Turai, yankin zai ci gaba da fuskantar matsalar hauhawar farashin makamashi da koma bayan hauhawar farashin kaya, kuma wataƙila ba za a sami farfadowa mai ɗorewa a ribar masana'antu ba.
Turai na fuskantar koma bayan tattalin arziki
Masu shiga kasuwar sun yi tsammanin ra'ayin kasuwar caustic soda da PVC ta Turai a shekarar 2023 zai dogara ne akan tsananin koma bayan tattalin arziki da kuma tasirinsa kan buƙata. A cikin sarkar masana'antar chlor-alkali, ribar masu samarwa tana faruwa ne sakamakon daidaita tsakanin caustic soda da PVC resin, inda wani samfuri zai iya rama asarar ɗayan. A shekarar 2021, duka samfuran za su kasance cikin buƙata mai ƙarfi, tare da rinjayen PVC. Amma a shekarar 2022, buƙatar PVC ta ragu yayin da aka tilasta samar da chlor-alkali ya rage nauyi a tsakanin hauhawar farashin caustic soda saboda matsalolin tattalin arziki da tsadar makamashi. Matsalolin samar da iskar gas ta Chlorine sun haifar da ƙarancin wadatar soda mai ƙarfi, wanda ya jawo hankalin adadi mai yawa na oda ga kaya na Amurka, wanda ya tura farashin fitar da kaya na Amurka zuwa mafi girman matsayi tun 2004. A lokaci guda, farashin PVC mai tabo a Turai ya faɗi sosai, amma zai kasance cikin mafi girma a duniya har zuwa ƙarshen 2022.
Masu shiga kasuwa suna tsammanin ƙarin rauni a kasuwannin caustic soda da PVC na Turai a rabin farko na 2023, yayin da buƙatar masu amfani ta ragu sakamakon hauhawar farashin kayayyaki. Wani ɗan kasuwa mai sayar da soda caustic ya ce a watan Nuwamba na 2022: "Farashin soda caustic yana haifar da lalata buƙata." Duk da haka, wasu 'yan kasuwa sun ce kasuwannin caustic soda da PVC za su daidaita a 2023, kuma masu samar da kayayyaki na Turai za su iya amfana a wannan lokacin. Don yawan farashin soda caustic.
Raguwar buƙatar Amurka ta ƙara yawan fitar da kayayyaki zuwa ƙasashen waje
A shekarar 2023, masu samar da chlor-alkali na Amurka da aka haɗa za su ci gaba da aiki mai yawa kuma su ci gaba da riƙe farashin caustic soda mai ƙarfi, yayin da ake sa ran ƙarancin farashin PVC da buƙata za su ci gaba, in ji majiyoyin kasuwa. Tun daga watan Mayu na 2022, farashin fitar da PVC a Amurka ya faɗi da kusan kashi 62%, yayin da farashin fitar da caustic soda ya hau da kusan kashi 32% daga watan Mayu zuwa Nuwamba na 2022, sannan ya fara faɗuwa. Ƙarfin caustic soda na Amurka ya faɗi da kashi 9% tun daga Maris na 2021, galibi saboda jerin katsewar wutar lantarki a Olin, wanda kuma ya goyi bayan ƙarin farashin caustic soda. A shekarar 2023, ƙarfin farashin caustic soda shi ma zai ragu, kodayake ƙimar raguwar na iya zama ƙasa.
Kamfanin Westlake Chemical, daya daga cikin kamfanonin da ke samar da resin PVC a Amurka, ya kuma rage yawan samar da shi da kuma fadada fitar da shi zuwa kasashen waje saboda karancin bukatar robobi masu dorewa. Duk da cewa raguwar hauhawar kudin ruwa a Amurka na iya haifar da karuwar bukatar cikin gida, masu halartar kasuwar sun ce farfadowar duniya ta dogara ne akan ko bukatar cikin gida a China ta farfado.
Mayar da hankali kan yiwuwar farfado da buƙatu a China
Kasuwar PVC ta Asiya na iya farfadowa a farkon shekarar 2023, amma majiyoyin kasuwa sun ce farfadowar za ta ci gaba da kasancewa mai iyaka idan bukatar China ba ta farfado gaba daya ba. Farashin PVC a Asiya zai fadi sosai a shekarar 2022, inda farashin a watan Disamba na wannan shekarar ya kai matakin mafi karanci tun watan Yunin 2020. Da alama wadannan matakan farashin sun haifar da siyan kayayyaki ta hanyar da ba ta dace ba, wanda hakan ya kara hasashen cewa raguwar farashin na iya raguwa, in ji majiyoyin kasuwa.
Majiyar ta kuma nuna cewa idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2022, wadatar PVC a Asiya a shekarar 2023 na iya ci gaba da kasancewa a matakin ƙasa, kuma ƙimar aiki za ta ragu saboda tasirin fashewar kayan da ake samarwa a sama. Majiyoyin kasuwanci suna tsammanin kwararar kayan PVC na asali daga Amurka zuwa Asiya zai ragu a farkon shekarar 2023. Duk da haka, majiyoyin Amurka sun ce idan buƙatar China ta sake dawowa, wanda ke haifar da raguwar fitar da PVC na China, hakan na iya haifar da ƙaruwar fitar da kayayyaki daga Amurka.
A cewar bayanan kwastam, fitar da PVC daga China ya kai tan 278,000 a watan Afrilun 2022. Fitar da PVC daga China ya ragu daga baya a shekarar 2022, yayin da farashin fitar da PVC daga Amurka ya fadi, yayin da farashin PVC daga Asiya ya fadi kuma farashin kaya ya fadi, wanda hakan ya dawo da gasa a duniya na PVC daga Asiya. Ya zuwa watan Oktoban 2022, yawan fitar da PVC daga China ya kai tan 96,600, matakin mafi karanci tun daga watan Agustan 2021. Wasu majiyoyin kasuwar Asiya sun ce bukatar China za ta sake farfadowa a shekarar 2023 yayin da kasar ke daidaita matakan hana yaduwar cutar. A gefe guda kuma, saboda yawan kudin da ake kashewa wajen samar da kayayyaki, yawan kayan aiki na masana'antun PVC na China ya ragu daga kashi 70% zuwa kashi 56% nan da karshen shekarar 2022.
Lokacin Saƙo: Fabrairu-14-2023