Rikicin Gabas ta Tsakiya Ya Dagula Masana'antar Ethylene; Yawan Man Fetur da Ake Fitarwa a Duniya Zai Iya Faduwa da Sama da Tan Miliyan 22 a 2026

Walter Hart, Shugaban Olefins na Duniya a S&P Global Energy CERA, ya bayyana a taron Duniya kan man fetur cewa rufe mashigar ruwa ta Hormuz gaba daya zai yi mummunan tasiri ga masu samar da man fetur na Asiya. Za a tilasta rufe busasshen tururi a Gabas ta Tsakiya, yayin da sauran masana'antun Asiya za su rage ayyukansu saboda karancin kayan abinci.Ana sa ran samar da sinadarin ethylene a duniya a shekarar 2026 zai ragu da kimanin tan miliyan 22, daidai yake da kashi 12% na fitowar shekarar 2025.

Rikicin soja a yankin Tekun Gulf ya kawo cikas ga samar da abinci mai gina jiki. Kimanin tan miliyan 29 na ethylene a kowace shekara a yankin Gulf ba ya aiki, tare da rufewa gaba ɗaya a Iran, Kuwait da Qatar, da sauran masana'antun Gabas ta Tsakiya kusan mafi ƙarancin farashi. Wannan ya riga ya rage yawan fitar da ethylene a yankin da kusan tan miliyan 15.

Gabas ta Tsakiya tana da kimanin tan miliyan 35 na sinadarin ethylene, wanda kusan tan miliyan 6 yana wajen Tekun Fasha.An fallasa tan miliyan 29 na ƙarfin ethylene na Gulf kai tsayedon kawo cikas ga samar da kayayyaki.

Girgizar hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki ta bazu sosai a yankin Tekun Gulf. Karancin naphtha da danyen mai ya tilasta wa cibiyoyin mai a duk faɗin Asiya rage yawan gudu. "Fiye da rabin ƙarfin da ake da shi a duniya ya shafi," in ji Hart. Baya ga tan miliyan 29 da aka dakatar a yankin Tekun Gulf, gibin da ake da shi a fannin samar da abinci ya kai kimanin tan miliyan 105 na ƙarfin ethylene a Asiya.

Banda yankin Gulf, kiyasin HartTan miliyan 7–8 na samar da ethylene a duniyaza a rasa wannan shekarar saboda nau'ikan sarkar samar da kayayyaki. Bayanai sun nuna cewa samar da sinadarin ethylene a duniya ya kai tan miliyan 185 a shekarar 2025, tare da jimillar ƙarfin da zai iya kaiwa tan miliyan 232.

Rikicin ya kawo cikas sosai ga fitar da polyethylene (PE) da ethylene glycol (EG) zuwa Asiya daga Gabas ta Tsakiya, lamarin da ya haifar da sarkakiyar samar da kayayyaki ga polyolefins, polyester da PET.

Ana sa ran buƙatar ethylene na dogon lokaci zai ƙaru, duk da cewa a hankali. Hart ya yi hasashen cewa ƙimar aiki da ribar da ke tattare da ita ba za ta dawo gaba ɗaya ba har zuwa farkon zuwa tsakiyar 2030s, lokacin da buƙatar ƙaruwa ta cika da ƙarin ƙarin ƙarfin aiki.